Sunday, 17 June 2012

NDP Rise To 37%, Conservatives Drop To 30%

Since Tom Mulcair was chosen to lead the party back in March, the NDP has maintained a strong support across Canada, which has continued to grow. The opposite is true for the Conservatives. Their support has been steadily dropping. Canadians are becoming more aware of the scandals plaguing them. And the exposure of the omnibus budget bill has not helped the Conservatives either. The Liberals are maintaining their support in the low 20s.

Of Significant Note:
Some things of significant note about the latest poll numbers from Forum Research are that the NDP are now ahead of the Conservatives in the Prairies (43% to 33%), and are tied in Ontario at 34% each.

Previously, the Conservatives led in Alberta, Ontario and the Prairies, while the NDP led in Quebec, BC and in the Atlantic provinces. Now the Conservatives only lead in Alberta, are tied in Ontario, and the NDP leads everywhere else.

Also, Bob Rae's decision to bow out of the Liberal leadership race boosted his approval rating to 40% nationally.

Poll Standings
NDP 37%
Con 30%
Lib 22%
Green 5%
Bloc 6%

NDP 34%
Con 34%
Lib 28%
Green 3%

NDP 41%
Con 15%
Lib 18%
Green 4%
Bloc 22%

NDP 45%
Con 30%
Lib 17%
Green 7%

NDP 13%
Con 60%
Lib 18%
Green 7%

NDP 43%
Con 33%
Lib 19%
Green 5%

NDP 44%
Con 28%
Lib 22%
Green 4%

This poll had a sample size of 1529, which has a margin of error of 2.51%, 19 times out of 20.

Other poll findings:
Favourable support of party leaders:
Tom Mulcair 39%
Stephen Harper 31%
Bob Rae 40%

Net Approval (approve minus disapprove)
Tom Mulcair +8%
Stephen Harper -30%
Bob Rae +8%

Forum Research:
In a sign that Canadians appreciate a clean exit, Bob Rae's approval rating has
increased from one third last month (33%) to 4-in-10 now (40%), and he has a
net approval (approve minus disapprove) of +8. This compares very favourably
with Tom Mulcair's approval of 4-in-10 (39%), and net approval of +8. Both these
scores easily outdistance those for Stephen Harper (31% approval, net approval

Majority expects government to be defeated in next election
In a measure of perception rather than voting intention, more than one half of
Canadians expect the current government to be defeated in the next election
(53%), while one third expect it to be re-elected (34%). While this is very similar
to levels of Conservative support, it should be noted that just 8-in-10
Conservative voters expect their party to be re-elected (79%), while one tenth do
not expect this to happen (11%). In an exact reversal of opinion, 8-in-10 NDP
supporters do not think the government will be re-elected (79%), and one tenth
think it will be (11%).

Trudeau as leader improves Liberal fortunes
If Justin Trudeau were leader of the Liberal party and the election were held
today, while the reduced plurality (32%) would still support the NDP, the Liberals
and the Conservatives would draw even in second place, with just more than a
quarter of the electorate each (28% each). The Bloc would claim the support of
5% and the Green Party of 4%. It is clear that Trudeau draws support (about 5%)
from the NDP.

Justin Trudeau leads all other contenders
When asked to select from a list of contenders for the Liberal leadership, one
quarter of Canadians in general (23%) and one third of Liberal supporters (33%)
pick Justin Trudeau, and no one else comes close. Close to one half of Canadians
(44%) and one quarter of Liberal supporters (26%) don't know who to select.
John Manley (7%) was more popular among Conservative supporters (13%) and
residents of Manitoba / Saskatchewan and Alberta (14% each). Like Trudeau,
Dominic Leblanc (4%) had highest support from residents of the Atlantic (11%)
and Quebec (6%). Gerard Kennedy (5%) was more likely to be selected by
Ontarians and British Columbians (8% each) than those of other provinces. Martha Hall-Findlay was more popular among Albertans (6%). In addition, Marc
Garneau had the support of close to a tenth of Quebeckers (8%).

Majority of Liberals approve of Trudeau as leader
When asked directly if they approved or disapproved of Justin Trudeau as leader
of the Liberals, the majority of party supporters (58%) approve, while just one
fifth disapprove (21%). Among the general populace, there is a split in opinion,
and just less than 4-in-10 approve (39%) and just more than a third disapprove
Quebeckers had the highest approval for Trudeau as the leader of the Liberal
Party (49%; compared to 40% Atlantic, 39% Ontario, 36% Manitoba /
Saskatchewan, 31% British Columbia, 25% Alberta).

More Analysis:

Dave Akin's On The Hill: Has It Ever Been So Good To Be A New Democrat?
One thing that people are debating in the comments to Dave's post is that Ed Broadbent had 40% support in between polls back in 1986, but that dropped significantly when it came to election time and the NDP remained in 3rd place. The major differences here are that there was a huge rise in support for the NDP before the most recent election, at which time the NDP became the official opposition with a large number of seats, and that support for the party has pretty much maintained since that time.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The Conservative cat is out of the bag and, damn, that is one ugly cat.