Thursday, 31 October 2013

Latest Ipsos-Reid Poll Shows NDP Rising At The Expense of The Liberals

Ipsos Reid just released new federal poll numbers.
Their latest poll was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28, 2013. Their previous poll covered Oct. 16 to 20, 2013.

Here is a comparison between their 2 polls

            Oct. 20       Oct. 28
NDP      27%            31%   up 4%
Lib         33%            31%  down 2%
Con       31%            30%   down 1%
Grn          2%              2%
Blc           6%              6%

With the Senate scandal being front and centre in the news for the past couple of weeks, and with the performance of Thomas Mulcair hammering away at Harper in Question Period, I think we can see Canadians once again taking notice of Mulcair and the NDP.

Mulcair is reminding Canadians that he is the one standing up for Canadians and asking the tough questions in Parliament. The honeymoon is over for Trudeau and Liberals (In May 2013, Ipsos Reid pegged the Liberals at 36%), and the NDP is rising back towards where they were in support before the Liberal leadership race.

The Conservatives have remained, in Ipsos Reid polls, between 30% and 32% for the past year. It seems that they will have to look a lot worse before their base starts to really crumble.

In the Spring and Summer, while the Liberals were riding high, the Bloc and the Green party also rose slightly, while the NDP dropped. They have dropped back down since, and now we see the Liberal numbers dropping as the NDP numbers rise.

It will be interesting to see if the NDP continue to rise and the Liberals drop, or if things level off like this for a while. I can't see the Conservatives gaining any ground in the next while with the current political climate. 

One significant point for the NDP is that they are leading in Quebec and BC and tied for the lead in Ontario. They have been in the lead in Quebec and BC in the recent past, but they haven't had so much support in Ontario until now. If they hope to form the next government, Ontario is the one area where they need to shore up support. Ontario seems to be warming up to the NDP.

See also:
   "The major beneficiary of the scandal seems to be the NDP so far. Tom Mulcair’s party, the Official Opposition in the Commons, has gained four percentage points since last week to sit at 31 per cent in the polls."
- and -
   "He said the NDP’s persistent strength in the polls makes the party a factor to watch. “The only thing we’ve seen that I think is of particular interest in all of this is the NDP strength hanging in there. The fact the NDP has got a new floor that is at least 25 [per cent] makes them definitely a spoiler in whatever goes on in the future.”

News release from Ipsos Reid including tracking graph:
Of particular note is the movement of the NDP over these two weeks, which gained 4 points from the first week of polling to the second. Most of that movement can be explained by gains made in Alberta (26%, up 9 points), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%, up 6 points), Ontario (33%, up 6 points) and British Columbia (36%, up 5 points). 

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