Tuesday, 2 June 2015

Excuse me Ipsos, do you know how to count? NDP doing quite well in the West, thank you.

Today, Ipsos came out with this headline:

Orange Crush is East, Not West: Federal Parties All Tied Up as Quebec Buoys NDP (30%) to Statistical Tie with Tories (31%), Grits (31%) Nationally 

Considering the actual poll numbers, especially when compared with the previous Ipsos polls, this is pretty misleading. It would imply that the NDP are not doing well or have not made any significant gains in the West.

When we look at the Ipsos numbers, we can see that the NDP have made significant gains, especially in Alberta in the West.

NDP support as shown in Ipsos polls Feb-May 2015

Feb 2015. Apr 2015. May 2015. Overall change Apr to May change
BC 21% 32% 34% +13 +2
AB 16% 23% 31% +15 +8
SK & MB 27% 21% 23% -4 +2
ON 23% 19% 24% +1 +5
QC 27% 34% 41% +14 +7
Atlantic 26% 19% 21% -5 +2

It looks to me like the Orange wave has hit not only Quebec, where the NDP has gained 14 points since February, but also BC and Alberta, where they gained 13 and 15 points since February.
Even comparing April to May, we see that NDP support still rose significantly in Alberta. The rise in NDP support, as you can see by these numbers, has been greatest in Alberta (15 points since Feb, 8 points since April), even greater than in Quebec.

A more accurate headline might be: 3 Main Parties All Tied As The NDP Makes Significant Gains At The Expense Of Both The Liberals And Conservatives. 

Overall, from Feb. to May, the NDP rose 7%, while the Conservatives dropped 2% and the Liberals dropped 3%

By themselves, these overall changes may not seem too significant. But, the fact that the NDP is picking up support from both Conservatives and Liberals spells trouble for these 2 parties.

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